ATHENS, Greece – October 7, 2026 (STL.News) U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday that Iran has “lost complete control” of the Strait of Hormuz, pointing to a sharp recovery in oil shipments through and around the strategic waterway despite continuing attacks on commercial vessels.
“The Straits of Hormuz are open. There’s almost as much oil flowing out now as there was before this conflict began. So they’ve lost complete control of the Straits,” Rubio told reporters during a visit to Athens.
Rubio also said Iran’s economy was in “total and complete freefall,” arguing that U.S. sanctions have placed increasing economic pressure on Tehran.
His comments represent the Trump administration’s assessment of the situation and come as shipping data show Middle Eastern oil exports recovering substantially from disruptions caused by the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.
The recovery, however, does not mean shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to normal or that the danger to commercial vessels has disappeared.
Middle East oil exports rebound
Shipping data strongly support Rubio’s assertion that Iran has been unable to prevent large volumes of oil from leaving the Persian Gulf.
Provisional data from shipping analytics company Kpler showed the seven-day moving average of Middle Eastern crude exports reached 18.3 million barrels per day on Sept. 30.
Regional crude exports exceeded prewar levels on 14 days during September.
Before the war began Feb. 28, Middle Eastern crude exports averaged approximately 18 million barrels per day during the preceding 12 months, according to Kpler data reported by Reuters.
Another shipping analytics company, Vortexa, reported that the 14-day moving average for Middle Eastern crude and condensate exports reached 18.6 million barrels per day, returning to pre-conflict levels.
Those regional totals are broader than traffic through Hormuz alone. They include oil shipped through the strait as well as exports through the Red Sea and cargoes moved through terminals and ship-to-ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman.
That distinction is important when evaluating Rubio’s statement.
Separate Kpler data reported by Reuters showed crude flows specifically through the Strait of Hormuz reached approximately 14.2 million barrels per day on a seven-day average on Sept. 26 — nearly 80% of prewar levels.
The figures demonstrate a major recovery in oil movements through the region, but they do not establish that traffic through Hormuz itself has fully returned to prewar levels.
Saudi Arabia drives export recovery
Saudi Arabia has played a major role in restoring regional exports.
After the war disrupted normal shipping through Hormuz, Saudi Arabia increased its reliance on the East-West Pipeline, which transports crude across the kingdom to the Red Sea port of Yanbu.
That alternative route itself became vulnerable.
An attack on the pipeline in September temporarily disrupted flows, forcing Saudi Arabia to redirect more crude toward the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi crude exports through Hormuz averaged about 3 million barrels per day in September, according to Kpler data Reuters cited. That was the highest monthly level since the conflict began, although it remained roughly half the kingdom’s prewar Hormuz volume.
The ability to move increasing amounts of oil through the strait despite the continuing threat of attack has weakened Iran’s ability to use disruption of the waterway as an absolute barrier to Gulf energy exports.
But significant risks remain.
Tanker attacks continue in Hormuz
Commercial vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz continue to face what maritime analysts describe as a highly unpredictable threat.
Shipping intelligence service Marisks reported at least seven tanker incidents during the first week of October.
The very large crude carrier Kazimah III was struck by an unknown projectile on Oct. 1 while traveling through the strait, causing a fire aboard.
The Liberian-flagged Aframax tanker Lipsi was struck by an unknown projectile on Oct. 4, damaging its engine room.
Both crews were reported safe.
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency also reported at least one attack per day in either the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden beginning Oct. 2, Reuters reported.
Marisks warned that vessels transiting Hormuz face a “heightened and increasingly unpredictable kinetic threat.”
That continuing danger makes an important distinction necessary: Rubio described Hormuz as “open,” but open does not mean the shipping corridor has returned to normal peacetime operations.
EIA says Middle East flows remain constrained
The U.S. Energy Information Administration reached a similarly cautious conclusion in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Tuesday.
EIA estimated that Middle Eastern oil exports increased in September from August, even as attacks intensified.
It also estimated that regional crude-production shut-ins fell substantially.
Shut-in production averaged about 4.8 million barrels per day in September, down from 5.8 million barrels per day in August and 10.9 million barrels per day at the peak of the disruption in May.
But EIA does not consider the region’s energy system fully restored.
The agency expects Middle Eastern oil flows to remain constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026 and forecasts average shut-in production of approximately 4.5 million barrels per day during the quarter.
EIA said producers are increasingly using alternative export routes and ship-to-ship transfers while transit conditions through Hormuz gradually improve.
The agency expects those adaptations to continue reducing production disruptions into 2027.
Oil market still reflects Hormuz risk
The disruption has had major consequences for global energy markets.
EIA reported that Brent crude averaged $114 per barrel in September, $23 higher than in August.
The agency now forecasts Brent will average approximately $105 per barrel during the fourth quarter of 2026, $14 above its forecast from the previous month.
EIA cited continuing Middle East disruptions, falling global inventories, tight diesel markets, transportation costs and risks associated with tanker traffic as factors keeping prices elevated.
Insurance and shipping costs have also risen dramatically.
Reuters reported this week that rates for transporting crude from the Middle East to Asia aboard very large crude carriers recently exceeded $1.2 million per day, compared with roughly $30,000 per day in January, citing shipping broker Poten & Partners.
That illustrates another consequence of the conflict: restoring physical oil shipments does not necessarily restore normal energy costs.
Tankers can move through a dangerous region while insurers, shipowners and energy traders continue pricing the risk of another major disruption.
Hormuz remains critical to global energy
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important maritime chokepoints.
Before the war, approximately 125 large commercial vessels typically traveled through the strait each day, including oil tankers, liquefied natural gas carriers, bulk carriers and container ships, according to Reuters.
The waterway accounted for roughly 20% of global crude oil and liquefied natural gas supply before hostilities began.
Its geography explains its strategic importance.
Hormuz connects the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Major energy exporters, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates, depend to varying degrees on access through the waterway.
Alternative pipelines and export terminals can reduce dependence on Hormuz, but they cannot easily replace all of the energy traditionally transported through it.
That gives control — or disruption — of the narrow waterway consequences far beyond the Middle East.
Greece offers possible maritime assistance
Rubio made his comments during an official visit to Greece, where the United States and Greece announced expanded counterterrorism information sharing.
Greek Foreign Minister George Gerapetritis said Wednesday that Greece would be willing to cooperate with the United States and provide maritime assistance in the Strait of Hormuz if a viable peace process emerges.
Greece has a strong interest in maritime security because of its large commercial shipping industry.
The offer also demonstrates how the Hormuz crisis has expanded beyond a confrontation involving Washington and Tehran into a wider international concern over freedom of navigation and energy security.
Iran’s leverage faces a new test
Rubio’s statement marks an increasingly assertive U.S. interpretation of developments in Hormuz.
The measurable evidence shows that Middle Eastern oil exports have recovered dramatically from their wartime lows and that substantial quantities of crude are again passing through the strait.
It also shows something else.
Hormuz remains a dangerous and disrupted shipping corridor.
Tankers continue to be attacked. Insurance and transportation costs remain exceptionally high. Some producers continue using alternative export routes and complicated ship-to-ship transfers, and the EIA still expects Middle Eastern oil flows to remain constrained through the end of the year.
For that reason, Rubio’s declaration that Iran has “lost complete control” should be understood as the U.S. government’s assessment of Tehran’s diminishing ability to prevent oil movements — not as evidence that the Strait of Hormuz has returned to normal.
The latest shipping numbers nevertheless represent a significant change from earlier stages of the war.
Large quantities of oil are moving again.
And despite continuing attacks and threats, Iran has not been able to stop them.
This article is for news and informational purposes and is not investment advice.
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