LONDON, June 15 (STL.News) – Ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is safe from mines could delay a return to normal shipping traffic by weeks following a deal to reopen the waterway, according to shipping and maritime security sources.
The operation involving conventional minesweepers and state-of-the-art underwater drones could continue for 40 to 50 days before many insurance, shipping, or oil companies feel confident enough to sail through. These assessments come from five Western maritime security sources following a preliminary agreement reached on Sunday between the United States and Iran to end their conflict.
Such delays could potentially hold up tens of millions of barrels of oil, adding to the supply constraints already present since the United States and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Every export barrel from the Gulf remains critical, as global stockpiles in major economies are currently trending toward their lowest levels since 2003, according to analysis from the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Caution Remains for Global Shippers
While Iran and the U.S. have facilitated some ship passages in recent weeks, industry officials continue to urge extreme caution. The primary concern among operators is the potential presence of naval mines, which necessitates the establishment of verified, safe routes.
“We still consider it very risky for ships to commence transits at this point,” said Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO.
It remains unclear exactly how many mines were deployed by Iran, which previously handled 20 percent of the world’s daily supply of oil and liquefied natural gas. Iran has threatened to deploy naval mines throughout the conflict but has not officially confirmed the planting of specific devices. The U.S. military has stated that mines remain a significant risk, noting that it has targeted Iranian mine-laying vessels during the hostilities.
On June 2, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing that Iran had mined large segments of international waters in the strait. Additionally, a June 11 note from the German navy, citing intelligence from U.S. and British forces, indicated that mines were located in four distinct areas, though these claims have not been independently verified.
Significant Risks for Tankers
The stakes for the shipping industry are immense. A standard supertanker carrying crude oil represents a value of approximately $300 million. Consequently, war risk underwriters and oil companies require ironclad assurances regarding passage safety before resuming full-scale operations.
The threat is not merely financial but poses a direct danger to crew safety. Any single missed mine could result in catastrophic failure for a vessel. As a result, the current volume of traffic remains a small fraction of the pre-war daily average. Before the conflict, 120 to 140 ships passed through the waterway daily, whereas recent figures show an average of only 12 to 15 vessels as navigation risks persist.
Ongoing Efforts to Secure Passage
International military forces, including those from Britain, France, and Germany, have dispatched warships and specialized minesweepers to the region to prepare for clearing operations. While U.S. military efforts to clear mines laid by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps are ongoing, officials have declined to provide specific operational details for security reasons.
Expert estimates suggest that Iran may still possess up to 1,000 naval mines, even following U.S. strikes aimed at destroying military infrastructure. This inventory suggests that the process of identifying and removing threats will be an extensive, methodical task.
Arsenio Dominguez, head of the U.N. shipping agency, welcomed the deal to reopen the strait as a positive step for seafarers. However, he emphasized that the implementation of safety protocols will require significant time to ensure all necessary guarantees are in place. Until these routes are fully cleared, the maritime corridor will remain restricted for the global energy trade.
